Andy Glockner will offer a full edition of the Bubble Watch each morning, then provide updates as the action plays out. Check back throughout the day for ongoing bubble analysis. All times are ET.
2:17 p.m. update: Survive and advance for UNC, Ohio State
There's only one point in a game when having the lead matters: at the final buzzer. North Carolina took that to an extreme against Miami, taking its only lead of the game on a Tyler Zeller layup at the buzzer to win by two. (The Heels trailed by 19 points in the second half.) Credit goes to Kendall Marshall for a beautiful, poised drive-and-dish to create the game-winner. The win keeps Carolina alive in its quest for a No. 2 seed. In a weird way, it also helps Duke, which very well could need a title game win specifically over Carolina to have a claim for a No. 1.
Ohio State also tempted fate, but escaped Northwestern in overtime and ends any questions about whether it will have a No. 1 seed on Sunday night. It looks quite likely that the Buckeyes will be in Cleveland and then the East regional.
2:10 p.m. update: Bid thief situation develops in the A-10
The top seed in the A-10 went down as Dayton jumped out to a huge lead on Xavier and held on for a one-point win. This is now a Bid Thief Situation as the league's two other NCAA-caliber teams -- Temple and Richmond -- are on the other side of the bracket. Dayton will face either Duquesne or St. Joe's in the semis, with the final now being assured of a team that had no chance for an at-large.
Friday morning's full Bubble Watch
We have finally moved past the early rounds of all the major tournaments and now we're loaded with games that will have an impact on both NCAA seeding and selection. By late tonight, we will have a much sharper and clearer picture of what Sunday's bracket may look like.
After most bubble teams held serve on Thursday, we're still looking at a scenario where only five or six even semi-reasonable candidates won't make the bracket. Unless things tighten quickly with some auto-bid surprises, Sunday's selection-snubs list won't be terribly moving.
Here's a taste of what's on tap for your Friday hoops pleasure:
� ACC: BC-Clemson and Virginia Tech-Florida State are enormous quarterfinals. Most likely, only FSU can survive a loss.
� Big East: No bubble talk, but Notre Dame continues its push for a No. 1 seed in the NCAAs.
� Big 12: Colorado may be good to go, but it can fully lock it up with an upset of Kansas.
� Big Ten: Michigan may be win-and-in vs. Illinois. Michigan State can erase any doubts by topping Purdue. Penn State needs to beat Wisconsin, for starters.
� Pac-10: USC-Arizona is a strong semifinal, and bubble teams should be afraid of the Trojans
� SEC: Georgia-Alabama looks like winner-in. Can the Bulldogs afford a loss and survive?
� MWC: New Mexico gets a third chance at BYU and could be a dangerous bid thief.
� A-10: A Richmond win over Rhode Island will bring the league closer to three bids.
� C-USA: With UAB's loss, the door's open for Memphis. Can the Tigers walk through it?
Only one auto bid is up for grabs today and that's in the Patriot League, where Bucknell hosts upstart Lafayette.
RELATED: Glockner: Pitt holds No. 1 seed in latest Bracket Watch
Bubble Watch and Bracket Watch will be daily through Selection Sunday. Enjoy!
Records listed are Division I only, per NCAA tournament selection guidelines. All RPI and SOS data are from Thursday's collegerpi.com RPI report.
GW = good wins.
BL = bad losses.
(N) = neutral-site game.
Send your feedback to bubblewatch@gmail.com or to @aglock on Twitter. All submissions are read; polite, fact-based ones stand the best chance of a response.
ACC
Locks: Duke, North Carolina
The quest for NCAA seeding begins in Greensboro, with North Carolina likely trying to ice a No. 2 seed and in the process condemn Duke to that line, as well. Them bubble battles between BC-Clemson and Virginia Tech-Florida State should be highly entertaining.
SHOULD BE IN
Florida State (21-9, 11-5; RPI: 44, SOS: 81)
Next game: Friday vs. Virginia Tech in ACC quarterfinals.
Chris Singleton may be back for today's meeting with the Hokies, which is very good news for the Seminoles' seeding hopes (as long as Singleton looks solid). It's hard to see the 'Noles missing at this point regardless of the outcome here, but getting their best player back would be a big boost (and an issue for Virginia Tech).
GW: Duke, Baylor (N)?
BL: at Auburn
IN THE MIX
Boston College (20-11, 9-7; RPI: 46, SOS: 36)
Next game: Friday vs. No. 4 seed Clemson in ACC quarterfinals.
BC did what it had to do, cruising past Wake to set up a huge quarterfinal showdown with Clemson. The Eagles would look very solid to get into the dance with a win. A loss here puts them in some danger.
GW: Texas A&M (N), sweep of VT, plus so-so collection of others
BL: Yale
Virginia Tech (20-10, 9-7, RPI: 66; SOS: 86)
Next game: Friday vs. No. 3 seed Florida State in ACC quarterfinals.
The Hokies won the no-win game against Georgia Tech and now may have to knock off the Seminoles for a second time to have a legitimate claim for an at-large. There are a lot of other bubble teams in position to make a move, so VT can't assume its rsum will hold up with a loss.
GW: Duke, Florida State, plus batch of other OK Ws
BL: Virginia (2x), at Georgia Tech
Clemson (20-10, 9-7; RPI: 60, SOS: 74)
Next game: Friday vs. No. 5 seed Boston College in ACC quarterfinal.
Here we go. The Tigers have to beat BC to have a chance to make the NCAAs, and even a win here isn't a sure ticket in the dance, as the Tigers lack a marquee win to hang their profile on. They'd have a chance to get one (assumedly) against UNC in the semis and it's not in the Dean Dome, so they'd have a prayer.
GW: BC, VT and FSU at home? Plus at C of C
BL: at Virginia, at NC State
Big 12
Locks: Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Kansas State
Kansas looked very sluggish but escaped Oklahoma State by a point in the quarterfinals and maintains control of its fate to land a No. 1 seed in the NCAAs. The other big news was Colorado's (third) win over Kansas State that very well may be the one that sends the Buffaloes into the field of 68.
SHOULD BE IN
Missouri (22-10, 8-8; RPI: 31, SOS: 50)
Season complete
The Tigers got handled by A&M and now await their Selection Sunday seeding and location. They feel like the consummate 8-9 game team at this point.
GW: K-State, Vanderbilt, Old Dominion, vs. Illinois?
BL: None, really
IN THE MIX
Colorado (20-12, 8-8; RPI: 64, SOS: 64)
Next game: Fri. vs. No. 1 seed Kansas in Big 12 semifinals.
Huge, huge, huge win for the Buffaloes over K-State. That was a must-get for Colorado, which now is in pretty good position to dance. They have a terrific opportunity to make sure with a semifinal against Kansas, but they may have already done enough as things unfold elsewhere that help them.
GW: Texas, Missouri, three-game sweep of Kansas State, (plus Colorado State, for bubble?)
BL: at San Francisco, at Oklahoma
Big East
Locks: Pitt, Villanova, UConn, Notre Dame, G'town, Louisville, St. John's, Syracuse, WVU, Cincinnati
Pitt's loss in the quarterfinals probably won't cost the Panthers a No. 1 seed in the NCAAs. Notre Dame is making a strong statement to get there itself, starting its tourney off with a demolition of Cincinnati. Louisville continues to impress and will get next shot at the Irish.
SHOULD BE IN
Marquette (20-14, 9-9; RPI: 59; SOS: 30)
Season complete
The Golden Eagles ran into a big effort from Louisville and exited the Big East tourney at the quarterfinals. That probably will be enough for them to dance, but who knows with the team that never makes things easy.
GW: at UConn, West Virginia (N), plus a trio of good home league wins (WV, ND, Syracuse)
BL: at Seton Hall
IN THE MIX
None.
Big Ten
Locks: Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin
The big boys start their fun today, with Purdue and Wisconsin (possibly) holding the NCAA fates of their opponents in their hands. Should the two meet in a semifinal, there could be locational preference and seeding on the line.
SHOULD BE IN
None.
IN THE MIX
Illinois (19-12, 9-9; RPI: 39, SOS: 16)
Next game: Friday vs. No. 4 seed Michigan in Big Ten quarterfinals.
The Illini enter the postseason looking like a prototypical 8/9-seed. They tangle with Michigan in a game the Illini likely don't need to win, but which could put the Wolverines into the dance.
GW: UNC, (plus MSU and Wisconsin at home), Maryland (N)?, Gonzaga (N)?
BL: Illinois-Chicago (N), at Indiana
Michigan State (17-13, 9-9, RPI: 47, SOS: 8)
Next game: Friday vs. No. 2 seed Purdue in Big Ten quarterfinals.
Michigan State edged Iowa in the first round and remains in decent position to hold on to an at-large. A loss to Purdue leaves the Spartans vulnerable, but we're running out of combinations of teams that are in position to do so. A win clearly clinches things, but avoiding a loss Thursday may have been enough.
GW: Washington (N) (plus Wisconsin and Minnesota at home)
BL: Swept by Michigan (for bubble purposes), at Iowa
Michigan (18-12, 9-9; RPI: 57, SOS: 18)
Next game: Friday vs. No. 5 seed Illinois in Big Ten quarterfinals.
It's not important if the Wolverines are ahead of the Spartans in the pecking order right now. We can re-evaluate after Friday's game with Illinois, which Michigan most likely needs to win to retain NCAA hopes. The rsum, other than the sweep of the bubbly Spartans, is very light at the top.
GW: Sweep of Michigan State, Harvard
BL: at Indiana
Penn State (17-13, 9-9; RPI: 55, SOS: 5)
Next game: Friday vs. No. 3 seed Wisconsin in Big Ten quarterfinals.
The Nittany Lions pushed past Indiana and now need to beat Wisconsin (and likely the Purdue-MSU winner) to have legitimate at-large hopes. There's not enough meat beyond the three solid home wins.
GW: MSU, Illinois and Wisconsin all at home in league play
BL: Maine
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