I thought about ending today's column just before the final, crucial paragraph, but I didn't want to be like Big East refs, so you will continue to get 100 percent bubble satisfaction.
After three interesting but (relatively) light days, our national hoops load gets nice and heavy on Thursday as we begin the final four-day push to Selection Sunday. The three remaining major-conference events get under way and the landscape is riddled with critical matchups:
� ACC: BC must handle league minnow Wake Forest again while Virginia Tech gets Georgia Tech.
� Big East: Marquette looks to have wrapped up a bid by beating WVU Wednesday night, but can take any semblance of doubt away against Louisville.
� Big 12: Colorado may be playing for its NCAA life against Kansas State in the quarters.
� Big Ten: Michigan State (Iowa) and Penn State (Indiana) face clear first-round must-wins.
� Pac-10: USC needs multiple wins (if not the auto bid), and that starts against Cal in the quarters.
� SEC: Georgia has a must-not-lose game with Auburn to set up a huge QF with Alabama.
� MWC: Colorado State and New Mexico face off in an elimination bout of longshots.
� CUSA: Memphis and UAB both open tournament play; wins by both set up a head-to-head semi.
GLOCKNER: Thursday's bracket projection
In auto bid news, congratulations are in order for the LIU Blackbirds (Northeast) and the Northern Colorado Bears (Big Sky), who played their way into the dance Wednesday night. No golden tickets are up for grabs on Thursday (full automatic bid list).
Bubble Watch and Bracket Watch will be daily through Selection Sunday. Enjoy!
Records listed are Division I only, per NCAA tournament selection guidelines. All RPI and SOS data are from Wednesday's collegerpi.com RPI report.
GW = good wins.
BL = bad losses.
(N) = neutral-site game.
Send your feedback to bubblewatch@gmail.com or to @aglock on Twitter. All submissions are read; polite, fact-based ones stand the best chance of a response.
ACC
(Conference Tournament Bracket)
Locks: Duke, North Carolina
North Carolina stormed past Duke on Saturday night to claim the outright ACC title, boosting its own surging seed aspirations while putting a crimp in Duke's push for a No. 1. Florida State will be the third team in from this league. The real question is: Will that be all?
SHOULD BE IN
Florida State (21-9, 11-5; RPI: 45, SOS: 79)
Next game: Friday vs. Virginia Tech-Georgia Tech winner in ACC quarterfinals
Harrison Barnes cashiered the Noles in the final seconds, but FSU looked pretty good without Chris Singleton, so they should be OK in a year of bubble weakness. Beating NC State moves them to 11-5 and a solid third-place league finish. They haven't done a ton, but they have done more than enough.
GW: Duke, Baylor (N)?
BL: at Auburn
IN THE MIX
Boston College (19-11, 9-7; RPI: 44, SOS: 28)
Next game: Thursday vs. 12-seed Wake Forest in ACC first round
The Eagles came up huge, crushing Virginia Tech in Blacksburg to get a sweep and then taking care of Wake Forest. Now they have to beat the league minnow again to get a crack at Clemson in a possible win-and-in quarterfinal for both teams.
GW: Texas A&M (N), sweep of VT, plus so-so collection of others.
BL: Yale
Virginia Tech (19-10, 9-7, RPI: 64; SOS: 86)
Next game: Thursday vs. 11-seed Georgia Tech in ACC first round
What's left to say? The Hokies are inexorably -- and squarely -- on the bubble again after a dispiriting 0-2 week that let BC and Clemson tighten things up. Now they have to win a useless first-round game against Georgia Tech before a meeting with Florida State in the quarters. I don't think their profile will hold up if they lose that game.
GW: Duke, Florida State, plus batch of other OK Ws
BL: Virginia (2x), at Georgia Tech
Clemson (20-10, 9-7; RPI: 59, SOS: 74)
Next game: Friday vs. BC-Wake Forest winner in ACC quarterfinal
Clemson gave it a decent go at Cameron but lost, but then handled VT to get to 9-7 and avoid having to play a first-round ACC tourney game. It may not be enough simply to beat Boston College (or, especially Wake, with a big upset), but North Carolina would await in the semis for the marquee win Clemson lacks.
GW: BC, VT and FSU at home? Plus at College of Charleston
BL: at Virginia, at NC State
Big 12
(Conference Tournament Bracket)
Locks: Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Kansas State
With the help of Texas losing three of its last five games, Kansas remarkably claimed a seventh straight Big 12 crown and seems headed for a No. 1 seed in the NCAAs. The Horns better figure things out quickly as this team looks nothing like it did three weeks ago, when people were touting it as possibly the national title favorite. The other team in the Sunflower State continues to surge, as well, and joins the lock party. K-State is suddenly looking like a team no one wants to see in their bracket.
SHOULD BE IN
Missouri (22-9, 8-8; RPI: 32, SOS: 43)
Next game: Thurs. vs. 3-seed Texas A&M in Big 12 quarterfinals
The Tigers handled Texas Tech on Wednesday night and now get a crack at the Aggies in the quarters. They're playing, more or less, for seeding and to try to get out of the dreaded 8-9 game.
GW: K-State, Vanderbilt, Old Dominion, vs. Illinois?
BL: None, really
IN THE MIX
Colorado (19-12, 8-8; RPI: 68, SOS: 75)
Next game: Thurs. vs. 4-seed Kansas State in Big 12 quarterfinals
Iowa State damaged the Buffs' at-large hopes in the last week of the regular season and almost ended them Wednesday. Colorado escaped with a two-point win to set up a crucial third meeting with Kansas State, which the Buffs swept in league play. Would this be the win that gets CU an NCAA berth?
GW: Texas, Missouri, Colorado State (for bubble)?, sweep of Kansas State
BL: at San Francisco, at Oklahoma
Big East
(Conference Tournament Bracket)
Locks: Pitt, Villanova, UConn, Notre Dame, G'town, Louisville, St. John's, Syracuse, WVU, Cincinnati
The league looks set to get its 11 NCAA bids with Marquette's victory over West Virginia. Villanova and Georgetown are going to be very interesting seeding discussions based on form and injury. Incredibly, the Wildcats could end up getting the league's worst seed.
SHOULD BE IN
Marquette (20-13, 9-9; RPI: 63; SOS: 34)
Next game: Thursday vs. 3-seed Louisville in Big East quarterfinals
TBW looks to have put itself in position to dance with a win its second-round West Virginia. A takedown of Louisville in the quarters would certainly clinch things and help the seeding cause.
GW: at UConn, West Virginia (N), plus a trio of good home league wins (WV, ND, Syracuse)
BL: at Seton Hall
IN THE MIX
None.
Big Ten
(Conference Tournament Bracket)
Locks: Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin
Purdue's stunning loss at Iowa dings the Boilermakers' hopes for a No. 1 seed in the NCAAs, but the most compelling news is coming from the bubble, where Michigan's second win over MSU has created a mess in the middle.
SHOULD BE IN
None.
IN THE MIX
Illinois (19-12, 9-9; RPI: 40, SOS: 16)
Next game: Friday vs. 4-seed Michigan in Big Ten quarterfinals
Another expected split, another week where the Illini spurned the chance to impress. They seem like the prototype 8/9-seed right now. They'll joust with Michigan in a game the Illini probably don't need to win, but could put the Wolverines into the dance.
GW: UNC, (plus MSU and Wisconsin at home), Maryland (N)?, Gonzaga (N)?
BL: Illinois-Chicago (N), at Indiana
Michigan State (16-13, 9-9, RPI: 47, SOS: 7)
Next game: Thursday vs. 10-seed Iowa in Big Ten first round
A loss at Michigan on Saturday, which gives the Wolverines a season sweep, has more or less eliminated any wiggle room and puts the Spartans in a sticky situation. With Penn State's win over Minnesota, the Spartans are now the 7-seed and are staring at a quarterfinal matchup with Purdue. If they don't win that game, this could end badly.
GW: Washington (N) (plus Wisconsin and Minnesota at home)
BL: Swept by Michigan (for bubble purposes), at Iowa
Michigan (18-12, 9-9; RPI: 57, SOS: 18)
Next game: Friday vs. 5-seed Illinois in Big Ten quarterfinals
The Wolverines got the critical sweep of Michigan State and now let the debates begin. Which team ends up ahead in the pecking order will come down to Big Ten tourney performance. Right now, I think the Spartans are barely ahead on the basis of better top-quality wins (although two of MSU's three top-50 wins came with Korie Lucious on the roster).
GW: Sweep of Michigan State, Harvard
BL: at Indiana
Penn State (16-13, 9-9; RPI: 56, SOS: 5)
Next game: Thursday vs. 11-seed Indiana in Big Ten first round
The Nittany Lions are 9-9 like three others, but have a weaker profile with an RPI fueled mostly by schedule strength. They probably need to make the tournament final to have a truly legit claim.
GW: MSU, Illinois and Wisconsin all at home in league play
BL: Maine
Eric Berry Tim Tebow Kyle Orton Demaryius Thomas Ndamukong Suh
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