Sunday, February 19, 2012

Bubble talk: Weekend's winners, losers

This weekend was an interesting one for teams on the NCAA tournament bubble. USA TODAY looks at who some of the winners and losers are.

This post will be updated as games finish.

MORE: USA TODAY's Bubble Tracker

WINNERS:

Kansas State: The Wildcats got a win in the middle of the toughest part of their schedule. Beating Baylor on the road should just about lock up Kansas State's spot in the field (barring a total collapse). Wildcats now have wins over Baylor, Missouri, Alabama, Texas and Long Beach State. Those are some quality Top 50 wins right there.

New Mexico:Big win over the Rebs. The Lobos have now beaten the two best teams in the Mountain West -- UNLV and San Diego State. Pretty much a lock to make the field now. Not much bubbly here.

Washington: After Washington beat Arizona on Saturday, the Pac-12 race changed. It's basically Cal and Washington, then everyone else -- at least according to the standings. The Huskies swept the Wildcats this season. Washington doesn't have any Top 50 wins, and the victories over Arizona are the two best wins on its resume which isn't that great for at-large consideration. Still, Huskies needed the win and they got it.

Wichita State: The Shockers could win the MVC and it wouldn't be the least bit surprising. But the Shockers always come up in discussion for at-large bids, too, so that's why they're on this list. Great win at Davidson on Saturday. The Shockers are one of the best teams nobody is talking about, and they'll do some serious damage in the NCAA tourney.

Alabama: Solid win over Tennessee, a team that's swept Florida this season. Crimson Tide are still dealing with suspensions/personnel issues, but the team put together a good game and beat a hot team. Alabama's resume is in good shape at this point, but with so many questions surrounding the team/team chemistry, this was an important victory.

Cincinnati: It could ultimately be numbers that keep Cincinnati out of the field because of the Bearcats' weak RPI and SOS. But the only thing Cincinnati can control is how it plays against its remaining opponents. Bearcats handled fellow bubble team Seton Hall on Saturday.

Iowa State: Good win over Oklahoma. That's a team you've got to beat if you want to remain on the bubble/in the field. Sooners aren't anything special (RPI is a little over 100), but they are not a team Iowa State should lose to at this point in the season.

Miami (Fla.): The Hurricanes took care of business, beating Wake Forest at home. Miami should beat Maryland next, and then it'd be really helpful if the Canes could also beat FSU and NC State after. But anyway, for now Miami looks OK. The Duke win is very, very nice to have on that resume.

Murray State: The Racers were impressive in their win over Saint Mary's on Saturday. Big, big Top 50 win for Murray State's tourney resume (in the event it doesn't get the OVC's auto-bid).

VCU: The Rams beat Northern Iowa in their BracketBusters game Friday night. It would have been better for VCU's at-large chances if they played a better team (Panthers' RPI is in the 60s), but a win's a win and Northern Iowa's RPI is the strongest out of any team the Rams have played in months. Still looks like CAA will be a one-bid league, but VCU is playing well and could maybe enter the bubble discussion if it keeps doing so.

LOSERS:

Illinois: The Fighting Illini don't have much fight left in them. A few days ago, Bruce Weber sounded like a guy who knew the end was near. His team looked the part, losing by 23 at Nebraska (who was 3-10 and dead last in the Big Ten entering the game). Free-fallin'.

Connecticut: The Huskies lost to a good Marquette team at home, which wouldn't be so damaging if it weren't part of a 2-7 nine-game stretch that has raised a lot of questions about UConn. After Connecticut got within four late in the game, Ryan Boatright got called for a technical. Two free throws plus a Marquette 3-pointer quickly put the game back in the Golden Eagles' hands. Following the game, UConn guard Shabazz Napier said, "I hate to say it, but I have to question some of these guys' hearts." Not good. This team is struggling big time, but its RPI is around 22 and its strength of schedule is the second-best in the nation. Huskies still would make the tournament at this point, but the lack of effort during the game and questionable comments after are bad news.

Memphis: Losing to UTEP at home? Worst loss of your season? To a team with an RPI of 183? Now was definitely not the time to do that. The Tigers have been pretty comfortably in the field in recent Bubble Trackers, but this definitely pushes them more toward the last-four-in territory. Very bubbly.

Arizona: After getting beat by Washington on Saturday, the Wildcats drop back to fourth place in the Pac-12. It looks like Arizona has to win the conference tournament to reach the NCAA tourney.

Saint Mary's: Time to start worrying. What if the Gaels don't win the conference, like they seemed on track to do just weeks ago? After getting throttled by Murray State, the Gaels have now lost three of their last four games. Three Top 50 wins coupled with a weak SOS/non-conference SOS will make things interesting for Saint Mary's at-large chances.

North Carolina State: This team desperately needs a few more good wins on its resume. The Wolfpack squandered another opportunity for one Saturday, falling to No. 21 Florida State at home. NC State is really close to being one of the last teams in or first teams out of the field, so a win over a ranked team would have been huge.

Texas: The Longhorns were one of the last teams in the field in the last Bubble Tracker. Then they go and lose at Oklahoma State on Saturday. While that isn't a horrible loss, it was one they really couldn't afford. Texas gets Baylor at home on Monday, and a win then would really help out the Longhorns' tourney chances.

Northern Iowa: The Panthers really could have used another win against a team with a Top 100 RPI. Final two regular season games are against weak teams. Northern Iowa should probably fall off the bubble completely after losing to VCU.

Mississippi: Getting taken off the bubble after the loss to Kentucky on Saturday. Needed a huge win, didn't get it. Didn't look like a tournament-caliber team.



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