Under the old rules, Cam Newton might've commanded a rookie contract including up to $60 million in guaranteed money before taking an NFL snap.
And now?
With the NFL pushing for a rookie wage scale as part of a new labor deal, the quarterback chosen No. 1 overall by the Carolina Panthers and other high draft picks are undoubtedly braced to feel the effects of a major landscape change.
Last year's top pick, Sam Bradford, signed a six-year deal with the St. Louis Rams that guaranteed a record $50 million. In 2009, Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford got $41 million guaranteed as the No. 1 pick.
Any chance that Newton sees those type of numbers?
"I don't know about that," Panthers owner Jerry Richardson said during NFL meetings in Indianapolis last month. "We don't even have a system in place."
Unlike previous years, when the No. 1 pick was typically signed before the draft, Richardson contended that the Panthers had no pre-draft contract talks with Newton.
That's another unusual twist from a wild offseason dictated by an NFL lockout now in its 15th week.
Asked if it was unsettling to select Newton without knowing parameters of a rookie scale, Richardson said, "There are many things that we don't know, and that happens to be one of them. But I wouldn't say that's the most unsettling. Just one of them."
As NFL owners meet in Chicago this week, it is apparent a rookie scale won't be a major snag in reaching a labor deal. Not with larger revenue questions in play.
Even so, Commissioner Roger Goodell still described the scale as an unresolved core issue during a recent conference call with Tennessee Titans season ticketholders. While NFL Players Association spokesman George Atallah declined to comment, it is notable that during the collective bargaining process the union was open to compromise as it proposed what it termed a proven performance plan.
According to people with knowledge of the talks now attached to a potential out-of-court settlement who did not want to be identified because the two sides are sworn to secrecy by a federal magistrate, a rookie scale could limit contract length for non-quarterback first-round picks to four years while other draftees could sign three-year deals, allowing a faster track to free agency (albeit restricted free agency in some cases). Another provision could eliminate option bonuses and other triggers that stretch salary cap dollars.
In 2010, according to figures cited by Green Bay Packers President Mark Murphy, the 255 draft picks were guaranteed $660 million. The Chicago Sun-Times reported guaranteed money for rookies has increased by 12% a year since 2000.
"It won't be the same," Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones said of his expectations for a rookie scale. "We all know that it's a common area of interest between us and the players. So it's reasonable to assume that there will be some changes there."
Jones, who in the past traded out of top-10 draft positions because of the commitment needed to strike contracts for unproven players, said the prospect of a rookie scale weighed into his decision to stay pat in this year's draft. With the ninth pick, the Cowboys selected Southern California tackle Tyron Smith.
"I was more comfortable in that spot," Jones said, "than I would have been."
Although some veterans support a rookie scale with the expectation that savings would be funneled to proven players, late players union chief Gene Upshaw typically offered staunch resistance. Upshaw argued that big rookie deals reset the market.
For instance, when Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan was guaranteed $34.75 million after being selected third overall in 2008 ? a deal signed the same week when owners voted to exercise an early opt-out clause in the collective bargaining agreement that expired in March ? it surely didn't hurt the bargaining position for established quarterbacks such as Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Drew Brees.
"Historically, contracts for rookies at the top of the draft helped veteran players," said agent Tom Condon, who represented six of the past eight No. 1 overall picks, the exceptions being Newton and JaMarcus Russell.
Of course, big busts fuel momentum for a scale.
Russell, picked by the Oakland Raiders in 2007, was paid $32 million. Former Detroit Lions wide receiver Charles Rogers was guaranteed $14.2 million after being chosen No. 2 overall in 2003. Quarterback Matt Leinart, picked 10th by the Arizona Cardinals in 2006 (and since released), was guaranteed $12.9 million.
Condon blamed teams for such miscalculations.
"At the top of the draft," he said, "you're not supposed to miss on those picks."
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