Prince deal will impact other first basemen
Reds face challenge with Votto; Royals should try to ink Hosmer
The repercussions of the Prince Fielder contract don't just involve Miguel Cabrera's potentially problematic transition to third base or the Tigers' prominent payroll commitments to three designated-hitter types.
The impact extends to other clubs, as well. And the Reds and Royals are right at the top of that list. Yes, Albert Pujols became the first $200 million first baseman this winter, but an 11-year track record that includes three MVP awards made that contract more predictable. Going into the offseason, Fielder's ability to command that kind of cash was in question, especially with the Yankees and Red Sox definitively out of the bidding. When the Tigers came through for Fielder, they may well have come through for Joey Votto, too. Because if Fielder is worth $214 million over nine years, what is Votto -- who has an MVP award and a better body, is a better defender and baserunner and has a better slash line (.318/.418/.565 vs. .287/.409/.547) than Prince over the past three seasons -- going to command when he's free-agent eligible after 2013? The Reds, undoubtedly, have already asked themselves that question. And they have to know the answer doesn't bode particularly well for Votto remaining a long-term fixture at Great American Ball Park. A year ago, the Reds used a three-year contract extension to buy out Votto's arbitration years. It was an odd deal because the Reds took on all of the injury risk that comes with locking up star talent but without the benefits of buying out any of his free-agent years. When that deal went down, it appeared certain Votto would get the opportunity to explore his worth on the open market after 2013. And now, thanks to the Fielder deal, Votto has an even better barometer of what that worth will be. It's gargantuan. Fielder is now the fifth active first baseman making north of $20 million per year (there are six if you count Cabrera, who was considered a first baseman when he signed with the Tigers). Votto is the most logical candidate to join that group. Granted, Votto will be 30 when he hits free agency, whereas Fielder is 27. So that will impact Votto's earning power relative to Prince. But if Votto gets through the next two seasons healthy, he will enter free agency facing fewer concerns about his body type than Fielder faced. He's going to do just fine for himself. And while Votto is now the next MVP-caliber first baseman in line for a free-agent pay day, it will be interesting to see if the Fielder deal affects those further back in line. That leads us to Eric Hosmer. Few fates of player and team seem as entwined as that of Hosmer and the Royals. Hosmer, after all, is the centerpiece of the Royals' new wave of young talent that is expected to finally thrust them into contention, and he impressed in his first big league break-in last season. The 22-year-old hit .293 with 19 homers, 27 doubles and 78 RBIs in 128 games. He looked like the real deal. Because they called Hosmer up in early May, the Royals likely ensured that he will be eligible for arbitration via "Super 2" status after the 2013 season, and that would give him not three but four rounds of arbitration before he's free-agent eligible after the 2017 season -- each one pricier than the last. Given that arbitration situation and the massive implications of the Fielder contract, it might behoove the Royals to extend Hosmer now, even though they have him at a steep discount for 2012 and 2013. Hosmer, like Fielder, is a Scott Boras client, and Boras, generally speaking, is notorious for getting his players to free agency as quickly as possible. But Boras also represents the Rockies' Carlos Gonzalez, who signed a seven-year, $80 million extension a year ago. So a Hosmer extension wouldn't be without some precedent on that front. It also wouldn't be without precedent from a service-time standpoint. Grady Sizemore (six years, $22.95 million) and Troy Tulowitzki (six years, $31 million) were cornerstone talents with fewer than two years of service time who signed huge extensions. Ryan Braun (eight years, $45 million) and Evan Longoria (six years, $17.5 million) were given big extensions with less than one. Given the current climate in the wake of the Pujols and Fielder deals (and knowing full well the value received by the Brewers and Rays), it's safe to assume a Hosmer extension would/could blow away the dollar value of those Braun and Longoria contracts. To buy out any of Hosmer's free-agent years would take a minimum seven-year commitment, and it might take a Gonzalez-like dollar figure attached to those seven years to make it happen. That would be an incredible show of faith in a player with only 128 big league games under his belt. But when you look at the first-base market -- how the Brewers were unable to keep Fielder and the Reds are going to have trouble keeping Votto -- it might make sense.Anthony Castrovince is a reporter for MLB.com. Read his columns and his blog, CastroTurf, and follow him on Twitter at @Castrovince. This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs.
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