Even in a short course, a little's to be learned
Conclusions can't be drawn so soon, but impressions can be made
Nowhere is a little knowledge a more dangerous thing than in baseball.
Most teams have yet to complete 2 1/2 percent of their seasons. Yet fans, club personnel, and, of course, media types are rushing to draw conclusions. The Red Sox are being belittled for not upgrading their pitching staff, while the Reds are being anointed in some corners as World Series-bound. All while at least 158 games remain for every big league club.
A little perspective: On a percentage basis, what we've seen so far in baseball is the equivalent of about 20 minutes of one game within an entire pro football season. Folks, we ain't seen nothing yet. Deeming offseason projects successful or doomed at this point is, for the most part, silly.
Fine, you may say. What can be reasonably ascertained at this point?
A few things, actually. Health, for one, and that's a big one. Winning teams, with few exceptions, are healthy teams, and some contenders are dealing with significant injuries, from Evan Longoria (oblique strain) to Matt Holliday (appendectomy). We know the Rays and Cardinals teams that will take the field this week are weaker than the ones that lined up on Opening Day.
Tools, as differentiated from skills, can reveal themselves even this early. A player who has lost a step on the bases or a tick on his fastball can be discovered quickly. Players who looked like they were playing at three-quarters in Spring Training should be at full-speed now. If they're not, there might be a problem.
Health, however, doesn't necessarily equate with performance. Tools don't automatically translate into skills. It's a good start, though. And a player whose tools are not intact could be in for a long season.
And then, with all due respect for the power of confirmation bias, there's some value in seeing things happen in practice that we believed were true in theory. It's fashionable to go against the preseason grain and run down the Red Sox because of three bad games, but any reasonable estimation of that club has to acknowledge that they're still pretty formidable. On the flipside of that same series ... yeah, the Rangers can hit a little.
To some extent, it would seem that you could tell more from a surprising early success than surprising early struggles. Baseball is a difficult game, and even the best will fail sometimes. Just because Albert Pujols goes 0-for-5 on Opening Day, it doesn't mean anyone reasonable thinks he's in for a bad year. It's tougher for a lesser player to have a great week or two. But even that happens sometimes.
"You can't place too much weight either way," Padres manager Bud Black cautioned Sunday.
With that said, an attempt to see if we've actually learned something about five clubs off to noteworthy starts:
Red Sox: Short answer, no. If you can look at this club, be swayed by three games on the road against the defending American League champions and decide that they're somehow doomed, your perspective needs some recalibration. They're going to hit. Jon Lester, John Lackey and Daniel Bard aren't going to get lit up all year. Maybe Boston won't be a super team, but the rush to pile on this club is a bit ... hilarious.
Cardinals: Maybe a little bit, yes. They're not going to lose 120 games, as their current record suggests despite a nice showing on Monday. But the Cards willingly sacrificed some defense for offense this winter, and the potential downside of that decision is showing up. An extreme groundball staff needs more than adequate defense to maximize its ability. That doesn't just mean avoiding errors. It means getting to lots of balls. As of right now, there isn't any indication they'll do that. They should hit better than this, and the rotation should be fine. But preseason worries about the defense have not been quelled.
Orioles: See Cardinals: Maybe a little bit, yes. It's not like the O's shut down the '27 Yankees this weekend -- Tampa Bay is going to struggle to score runs at times this year. Still, the question about Baltimore is its young arms, and in the early going, a couple of them have looked very good. It's extremely difficult to see the Orioles challenging for a playoff spot, but they could well be improved. And if they are, it will be on the arms of pitchers like Chris Tillman, Zach Britton and Jake Arrieta.
Royals: Probably not, but who cares? Kansas City's future is still a year or two away, and when it gets here, it's going to be exciting indeed. Every game that the Royals are relevant before that time is gravy. If they can stir up some excitement around town before the ridiculous waves of talent start arriving, it's all for the good of a franchise that appears to be on the rise.
Say this for the Royals, though: Many of the players who have contributed to the early wins are players who might have a future there. Alex Gordon is off to a strong start -- and the former top prospect is still barely 27. Kila Ka'aihue's walk-off homer on Friday could mark the start of an exciting career. The talented young arms in the Royals bullpen have been lights-out. The future isn't here yet, but if you squint, you can start seeing it.
Reds: Yes, maybe so. In all the talk of the National League Central as a three- or four-team race, Cincinnati may have been underestimated in the preseason. And what Spring Training and the first few days of the regular season have shown is that relative to the rest of their division, the Reds have depth. The Cardinals lose Adam Wainwright, they have to dip into their bullpen. The Brewers lose Zack Greinke, it leaves their staff unsettled.
But Cincinnati places two starters on the disabled list and just motors right along. If everyone is at full health in the NL Central, it probably is a close, competitive battle between three or four clubs. If they all lose key players, the Reds seem much better suited to go on.
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