Winners and placed horses from each of the big five regional prep races are the strongest contenders at Churchill Downs: Arkansas Derby, Blue Grass Stakes in Kentucky, Florida Derby, Santa Anita Derby in California and Wood Memorial in New York.
Added to the mix of talented 3-year-old colts are the Irish-trained victor of the $2 million United Arab Emirates Derby in Dubai and winners of the Illinois Derby and Sunland Derby in New Mexico (the latter two races have produced two Kentucky Derby upset winners in the past seven years).
MORE: Kentucky Derby capsules: Saturday's lineup 1-10
MORE: Kentucky Derby capsules: Saturday's lineup 11-20
STORY: Live odds for Kentucky Derby
Two-year-old form is also under the handicappers' microscope, as an unprecedented nine runners from November's Breeders' Cup Juvenile are entered in the Derby, including the first five past the post.
In what has already proved to be a key race, it is worth noting that the 2011 Juvenile was run over the same Churchill Downs dirt track as the Derby, providing valuable course experience to most of the leading contenders Saturday.
Writers? Derby picks
Jerry Bossert, NY Daily News:Union Rags
Bob Ehalt, ESPNNY.com: Union Rags
Bob Fortus, Times-Picayune: Gemologist
Ed Fountaine, New York Post: Union Rags
Beth Harris, AP: Union Rags
Tom Law, Thoroughbred Times: Creative Cause
Bill Marshall, Augusta (Ga.) Chronicle: I?ll Have Another
Ed McNamara, Newsday: Gemologist
Richard Migliore, HRTV: Union Rags
Ron Mitchell, Blood-Horse Magazine: Daddy Nose Best
Tom Pedulla, USA TODAY: Union Rags
Jennie Rees, Louisville Courier-Journal: Take Charge Indy
Mike Welsch, DailyRacing Form: Daddy Nose Best
Gary West, ESPN.com: Bodemeister
Tim Wilkin, Albany (N.Y.) Times-Union: Gemologist
Alicia Wincze, Lexington Herald-Leader: Gemologist
Union Rags, an agonizingly close second to Hansen in the 2011 Breeders' Cup Juvenile, is expected to gain revenge and wear the Derby champion's blanket of roses.
Trained by Michael Matz, Union Rags has followed the same Florida to Kentucky training regimen that Matz used with success when sending out Barbaro to win the 2006 Derby.
Although Union Rags finished third in the Florida Derby (a race that the undefeated Barbaro won), the prolonged waiting tactics that jockey Julien Leparoux employed at Gulfstream probably will not be repeated. Providing Leparoux can steer Union Rags through traffic and avoid a troubled trip, the son of sire Dixie Union should storm down the stretch to victory.
A fast pace is almost certain Saturday, as four confirmed front-runners are expected to take each other on in the first stage of the 1�-mile race. When a speed duel develops, the late closing stretch runners have an advantage, as the early speed horses inevitably tire.
Take Charge Indy, Trinniberg and Hansen should fight for the lead, closely followed by Bodemeister. Undefeated Gemologist tends to race close to the pace but might be forced wide in the first turn breaking from post position 15.
Hansen, a flashy gray, will attract plenty of attention and is likely to be leading turning for home. However, the Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner gets stirred up before races and will expend valuable energy when parading in front of 150,000 raucous fans.
Gritty Wood Memorial winner Gemologist is undefeated in five lifetime starts. The son of Tiznow (a Breeders' Cup Classic winner over the same Churchill Downs course and distance) did not race in the Breeders' Cup last year, but won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs three weeks after the championships.
Trained by Todd Pletcher for WinStar Farm, the same connections as 2010 Derby winner Super Saver, Gemologist could be racing's next superstar. The horse has never faced the level of competition that will race Saturday, although another top-class performance is expected.
Bodemeister, named after trainer Bob Baffert's son Bode, heads to Churchill Downs coming off a superlative victory in the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park. Sent right to the lead by jockey Mike Smith, Bodemeister extended his margin at every call and drew away to win by 9� lengths.
The son of Belmont Stakes winner Empire Maker is bred to relish the Derby distance and is a threat to win it all.
It is questionable whether any of the front-runners other than Bodemeister and Gemologist will still be in contention a furlong from the finish.
Horses placed in mid-pack down the long backstretch run will be sitting in perfect position to pounce once the field of 20 runners turns into the homestretch, a quarter-mile from the finish.
Alpha, El Padrino, Creative Cause and Union Rags all exhibit such a running style. The Derby winner will surely come from this group.
Typically never too far back in his races, Leparoux will have Union Rags about eight lengths off the leaders in the early going, after breaking from favorable post four.
As the front-runners begin to tire, Union Rags can make a sweeping wide move to take the lead and pull away to victory.
Play Union Rags to win and place and key him in exactas and trifectas with Gemologist, Alpha and Bodemeister.
More adventurous handicappers, or those with a bigger bankroll, might also include Daddy Long Legs, Take Charge Indy and Creative Cause on exotic tickets.
Source: http://rssfeeds.usatoday.com/~r/UsatodaycomSports-TopStories/~3/wplL6OmKzhQ/1
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